2006 History

10 myths - and 10 Truths - About Atheism

http://www.josephpalmer.com/etc-local/graphics/ There is no society in human history that ever suffered because its people became too reasonable.

Sam Harris

Amen, brother. Amen. (Yes, it is perfectly logical and correct for an atheist to say amen.)

Fri, 29 Dec 2006 08:46:27 PST - Link

Last Friday Cat Blogging of 2006

Tory and Miko

We took all three to the vet for their yearly check-ups yesterday, there was much woe and wailing in the cat carriers. T-chan needs his teeth cleaned, and they found a flea on Tory. (First flea we've seen since they were kittens.) Everyone got a dose of Advantage.

- Link

Cause and Effect?

Bob Lutz, GM's vice chairman and the head of the company's global product development team, said the proposed changes to the government's Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards would represent an unfair burden on the traditional Big Three automakers.

"For one thing, it puts us, the domestic manufacturers, at odds with the desires of most of our customers, namely larger vehicles," Lutz said in a year-end posting on a Web site maintained by GM.

CNN

General Motors reduced its national advertising budget from $1.5 billion in 2005 to $1.3 billion for 2006 to cope with the $8.55 billion net loss the company suffered last year, reports Auto Week (via MediaBuyerPlanner).

marketingvox

I have a hard time with GM's "desires of most of our customers" statement, when they spent $1,500,000,000.00 in 2005 and $1,300,000,000.0 in 2006 to convince customers to buy large, low mileage vehicles. (That's about $8.49 per Licensed driver in the USA.)

"As long as [gas] is around $2 per gallon here, people will exercise their freedom to buy the vehicle they want, V8 engine and all," he said. "Forcing us to alter the fleets to hit some theoretical average won't change what consumers want, or what they'll buy." — CNN

Yes, well... But gas is $2.49 here today, Mr. Lutz. That's for regular gas, Mr. Lutz. Of course your top of the line Escalade wants premium in its 26 Gallon Tank, which is about $2.79 today, Mr. Lutz. That's 162.5 pounds of fuel, at $72.54, Mr. Lutz. How does $2.79 per gallon affect your business plan, Mr. Lutz? Are you betting your company on cheap oil, Mr. Lutz?

Wed, 27 Dec 2006 09:00:50 PST - Link

Christmas Gift: Pineapple Cheese Cake*

Crust:

   Graham Cracker Crumbs (Crush 20 2" Squares in ziplock bag)

   1 stick butter (1/2 cup)

   1/2 Cup Sugar

Mix the sugar and crumbs, melt the butter and mix well with crumbs. Press lightly with a spoon into the bottom and sides of a greased 9" (deep) pie plate

Bake at 370° for 3 Min.

Filling:

 12 oz Philadelphia Cream Cheese (Softened)

   2 eggs (slightly beaten)

 1/2 tsp Vanilla extract

 1/4 cup sugar

   1 8 oz can Dole crushed pineapple, drained

Cream the cheese with the vanilla extract

Alternately add beaten eggs and sugar until the mixture is smooth, then add Pineapple

Pour filling into crust

Bake:

325° oven for 25 minutes, (The filling will firm and darken slightly)

Allow to cool, then chill in refrigerator

Topping:

   1 cup Sour Cream

   3 Tbs Sugar

   1 tsp Vanilla Extract

Cream ingredients until smooth, pour over filling.

Chill for several hours, then serve.

*A Kim Family Christmas Tradition, and yes, It's that good.

Mon, 25 Dec 2006 17:40:09 PST - Link

Friday Cat Blogging Flock-o-Cats Edition

The low winter sun is just irresistible.

- Link

$99,700,000,000.00 / 300,441,125 = $331.85

The Pentagon wants the White House to seek an additional $99.7 billion to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to information provided to The Associated Press.

That's $331.85 for every man woman and child in the USA, about $0.91 per day. (That's $1327.38 for a family of 4). The population number came from the US Census Bureau Population Clock

$0.91 doesn't sound too bad to an engineer in Silicon Valley, but if you look at median income for a family of 4, ($65,093.00 in 2003) it's 2.04% of their gross income.

The military's request, if embraced by President Bush and approved by Congress, would boost this year's budget for those wars to about $170 billion.

That's $565.83 for each of us, $2,263.34 for a family of four, or 3.48% of the median income for this year alone.

Overall, the war in Iraq has cost about $350 billion. Combined with the conflict in Afghanistan and operations against terrorism elsewhere, the cost has topped $500 billion, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

So Iraq has cost $1,164.95 so far for each of us, or $4,659.81 for a family of four.

The overall $500 billion: $1,664.22 and $6,656.88.

But we've spent a greater treasure, here on day 1372 of this conflict, 3206 coalition soldiers have died, and 46,880 total casualties, from minor to life altering.

Thu, 21 Dec 2006 08:20:18 PST - Link

Peace

I came across this Christmas decoration when taking a different way home last night. What you can't see clearly is that the word "Peace" is laid out in lights on the lawn below the symbol. I cried.

2006 - Another Christmas at war. Bush was just on the TV — talking about a way forward. He still doesn't understand that the chances for success in Iraq have collapsed, and it's his fault. For years now, the pundits have been saying 'the next six months well tell... the next six months will be critical... we'll give the Iraqis another six months to stand up. So what is our President doing? He's spending one of those six months 'listening'.

Bush didn't listen when he was told that hundreds of thousands of troops would be needed to win the peace. Years of death, injury and insult to the Iraqi people have now pushed that objective out of the reach of US military might.

Worse, Bush didn't listen when the weapons inspectors were saying that they had found no WMD programs in early 2003. He was told it was a matter of months to complete the mission of searching out every lead, inspecting every site. We now know that there were no WMDs. We now have the proof that Hussein was not an imminent threat to us or our allies. We now live with the fact that we attacked a country that was not an imminent threat to our security, and that's a war crime.

This crime was compounded when the Bush administration, instead of placing experts in charge of reconstruction, chose candidates on the basis of loyalty to the Republican cause, and neocon principals. It was further compounded by the destruction of the civilian infrastructure, and the failure to re-construct it even under lucrative no-bid contracts.

It's clear from Bush's recent comments that he has already made up his mind. He has no intention of leaving Iraq, no matter what the facts are, no matter what advice he may receive in his one-month listening period. Meanwhile, back in Iraq, far from the missing mountain climbers, far from the tarnished reputation of Miss USA, far from the brawls on the Basketball court, the Iraqis are holding another in a long series of one-month dying periods.

Wed, 20 Dec 2006 09:05:32 PST - Link

On second thought

Okay, I'll admit it. It wasn't just me. We all won the person of the year award.

However, I think I'd like to give my part of the prize to Dave Winer of Scripting News, without whom I wouldn't have this ramshackle site.

It's not that I use his software to create it, and it's not like I've done that many podcasts, and not like I understood what RSS was all about back when he was pushing it...

I was inspired to do a website by reading Scripting News, (And Davenet before that). I was inspired to do podcasts after hearing his recordings. And I was inspired to add an RSS feed to my site by another Dave who finally pounded the value of RSS into my thick skull. So — thanks, Dave. You deserve this way more than me.

Sun, 17 Dec 2006 16:21:23 PST - Link

Holy Crap!

I'm Time's Person of the Year!

Sat, 16 Dec 2006 19:48:21 PST - Link

Friday Cat Blogging

Miko

Fri, 15 Dec 2006 08:53:39 PST - Link

The Electron Economy

Two interrelated stories for today:

Image Credit: Ulf Bossel.

Also, hydrogen is not a source of energy, but only a carrier of energy. As a carrier, it plays a role similar to that of water in a hydraulic heating system or electrons in a copper wire. When delivering hydrogen, whether by truck or pipeline, the energy costs are several times that for established energy carriers like natural gas or gasoline. Even the most efficient fuel cells cannot recover these losses, Bossel found. For comparison, the "wind-to-wheel" efficiency is at least three times greater for electric cars than for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Another headache is storage. When storing liquid hydrogen, some gas must be allowed to evaporate for safety reasons—meaning that after two weeks, a car would lose half of its fuel, even when not being driven. Also, Bossel found that the output-input efficiency cannot be much above 30%, while advanced batteries have a cycle efficiency of above 80%. In every situation, Bossel found, the energy input outweighs the energy delivered by a factor of three to four.

Physorg.com

Altair Nanotechnologies, a provider of advanced nanomaterials for use in energy, automotive, life sciences and industrial applications, announces that, in ongoing testing, it has completed 15,000 deep charge/discharge cycles of its innovative NanoSafe battery cells. Even after 15,000 cycles the cells still retained over 85% of their original charge capacity. This represents a significant improvement over conventional, commercially available rechargeable battery technologies such as lithium ion, nickel metal hydride and nickel cadmium. These other commercially available rechargeable batteries typically retain that level of charge capacity only through approximately 1,000 deep charge/discharge cycles.

Tests Confirm Extended Battery Cell Life from Altairnano

Tue, 12 Dec 2006 09:00:41 PST - Link

Wet Leaves

2006.12.10 Nikon D70S, AFS Nikkor 18-70

Sun, 10 Dec 2006 13:00:23 PST - Link

Friday Cat Blogging

Tory James in a sunny spot.

- Link

Two Reports

The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating. There is no path that can guarantee success, but the prospects can be improved.

The Iraq Study Group Report is online at CNN

The results indicate that only $2161 was needed in order to belong to the top half of the world wealth distribution, but to be a member of the top 10 per cent required at least $61,000 and membership of the top 1 per cent required more than $500,000 per adult. This latter figure is surprisingly high, given that the top 1 per cent group contains 37 million adults and is therefore far from an exclusive club. The entrance fee has presumably grown higher still in the period since the year 2000.

The figures for wealth shares show that the top 10 per cent of adults own 85 per cent of global household wealth, so that the average member of this group has 8.5 times the global average holding. The corresponding figures for the top 5 per cent, to 2 per cent and top 1 per cent are 71 per cent (14.2 times the average), 51 per cent (25 times the average) and 40 per cent (40 times the average), respectively. This compares with the bottom half of the distribution which collectively owns barely 1 per cent of global wealth. Thus the top 1 per cent own almost 40 times as much as the bottom 50 per cent. The contrast with the bottom decile of wealth holders is even starker. The average member of the top decile nearly 3000 times the mean wealth of the bottom decile, and the average member of the top percentile is more than 13,000 times richer.

The World Distribution of Household Wealth is available at the World Institute for Development Economics Research Website.

Wed, 06 Dec 2006 08:51:17 PST - Link

Weed.

Unidentified weed, ~1973 Tri-X, Nikon FTn, 50mm Nikkor

Mon, 04 Dec 2006 22:58:37 PST - Link

Weird.

First came the news of the radioactive poisoning death of the former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko. Evidence of radiation was found in London's Millennium Hotel in Mayfair, which is where we stayed in London in June of 2003.

Next came the news of Billionare Suleiman Kerimov, who crashed his Ferrari Enzo into a tree on the Promenade des Anglais — which is the road we took from the Nice Airport to our hotel.

That's just weird.

Mon, 27 Nov 2006 20:19:05 PST - Link

Friday Cat Bloging

Tory James, in box.

Fri, 24 Nov 2006 20:21:13 PST - Link

If I was on South Park...

Find Yourself at the Planetarium.

Hat tip to This and That. And yes, Chris looks just like that.

Wed, 22 Nov 2006 04:36:42 PST - Link

No Comment

Tue, 21 Nov 2006 08:54:48 PST - Link

Is It Warm In Here Or Is It Just Me?

The NAS stated that the late 20th-century warming in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the past 1,000 years and probably for much longer than that. It also noted that the finding has "subsequently been supported by an array of evidence". So, no matter how many charts or graphs the Viscount might want to create, the basic facts remain the same. What the models have shown, unequivocally, is that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases mainly released from industrial activities are warming the planet.

At stake is nothing less than the survival of human civilisation
Albert Gore in the Telegraph — UK

Sun, 19 Nov 2006 18:41:58 PST - Link

Unsafe Is Safe

The new traffic model's advocates believe the only way out of this vicious circle is to give drivers more liberty and encourage them to take responsibility for themselves. They demand streets like those during the Middle Ages, when horse-drawn chariots, handcarts and people scurried about in a completely unregulated fashion. The new model's proponents envision today's drivers and pedestrians blending into a colorful and peaceful traffic stream.

SPIEGEL ONLINE

Give people a little responsability and look what happens — they look out for each other. Maybe we should try that here in the US.

Sun, 19 Nov 2006 17:32:38 PST - Link

Friday Cat Blogging - Scary Look of the day

What do you mean by your pillow, dad. It's My pillow now.

Fri, 17 Nov 2006 22:40:45 PST - Link

NHSPATOT - Scary plot of the day

New Home Start Permits Authorized - Total

Not so good — since so much of the US economy is based on housing these days.

Fri, 17 Nov 2006 19:28:10 PST - Link

Saturday Cat Blogging

A day late, so I'll double your catness. Miko and Tchan, enjoying a patch of sun.

Sat, 11 Nov 2006 08:56:53 PST - Link

Dow Reaches New All-Time High on News of Successful transit of Mercury.

The transit of Mercury past the sun will be visible as a dot passing in front of the solar disc for several hours this morning.

It will not be visible again from Australia for 26 years.

ABC News Australia

The Dow Jones industrial average (up 19.77 to 12,176.54, Charts) closed at a fresh all-time high. The broader S&P 500 (up 2.88 to 1,385.72, Charts) index added a few points.

CNN

That was the only news today, right? ^_^

Wed, 08 Nov 2006 21:17:05 PST - Link

Heckovajob, Rummy.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld stepped down Wednesday, one day after congressional elections in which opposition to the war in Iraq contributed to heavy Republican Party losses.

CNN

I don't think that would have happened if the Republicans had held the House and Senate.

Rummy is expected to get a Gold Watch and Presidential Medal of Freedom for his work.

Wed, 08 Nov 2006 12:43:34 PST - Link

Exhale.

It's like an enormous weight lifted off my shoulders.

The Democrats have a solid majority in the House, and hold solid leads in the two remaining Senate races for a 51 seat majority. Bush has lose his rubber stamp.

The good news is that Democrats take control of all of the house committees, and have subpoena power. We can now hope that a little light will shine into the this most corrupt, most inept, most secretive administration in history.

Wed, 08 Nov 2006 08:44:42 PST - Link

Print Your Own

Make sure to go out and vote today. Here's a larger version.

Tue, 07 Nov 2006 07:10:21 PST - Link

Sunday Cat Blogging

Sun, 05 Nov 2006 08:43:52 PST - Link

It's Nature's Way of Telling You Something's Wrong

An international group of ecologists and economists warned yesterday that the world will run out of seafood by 2048 if steep declines in marine species continue at current rates, based on a four-year study of catch data and the effects of fisheries collapses.

The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that overfishing, pollution and other environmental factors are wiping out important species around the globe, hampering the ocean's ability to produce seafood, filter nutrients and resist the spread of disease.

Washington Post

Thu, 02 Nov 2006 21:44:23 PST - Link

November Surprise

Gas prices that have plummeted 80 cents in the past three months are helping the economy, but the cost could shoot right back up when the Saudis lower production after the election, warns Robert Weiner, a former senior public affairs director in the Clinton White House, former spokesman for the U.S. House Government Operations Committee, and now president of a Washington issue strategies group.

Weiner along with Richard Bangs, a Senior Policy Analyst at Robert Weiner Associates, point out that Bob Woodward has reported that Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, told President Bush two years ago, "The Saudis would cut oil prices to ensure a strong economy for election day." Weiner and Bangs believe, "this prediction has come to fruition."

They contend, "U.S. oil company executives also possess the power to allow the price drops we've seen that may be timed for the election. They have enough room to play-including last year's collective $100 billion in record profits and Exxon Mobil's own near record $10.6 billion profits this past quarter."

US Newswire

It wouldn't take much — a minor adjustment in production, a draw-down of in-country inventories, and the fudging of some inventory numbers. I guess we'll learn a lot more in the next few weeks. The next few months will be even more illuminating:

Energy Information Administration data showed world supply of crude oil has declined to 83.98 million barrels per day in the second quarter after hitting 84.35 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2005.

"If you basically have another six to ten months of that decline lasting, then I think for certain we would look back and say, 'Guess what? We actually reached a sustainable peak in crude oil production in December 2005,'" Simmons said at a meeting of the United States of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.

Reuters

Thu, 02 Nov 2006 08:23:33 PST - Link

Spiral Staircase

Arc de Triomphe, Paris France. 2006.11.9 Nikon D70s

Wed, 01 Nov 2006 07:32:03 PST - Link

A Flashing Red Light On The Dashboard Of The Planet

Scientists have uncovered more evidence for a dramatic weakening in the vast ocean current that gives Britain its relatively balmy climate by dragging warm water northwards from the tropics. The slowdown, which climate modellers have predicted will follow global warming, has been confirmed by the most detailed study yet of ocean flow in the Atlantic.

Most alarmingly, the data reveal that a part of the current, which is usually 60 times more powerful than the Amazon river, came to a temporary halt during November 2004.

...

Lloyd Keigwin, a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, in Massachusetts, in the US, described the temporary shutdown as "the most abrupt change in the whole [climate] record".

Guardian UK

- Link

October 31 Surprise?

The exercise is taking place as the United States and other major powers are considering sanctions including possible interdiction of ships on North Korea, following a reported nuclear test, and on Iran, which has defied a U.N. Security Council mandate to stop enriching uranium.

The exercise, set for Oct. 31, is the 25th to be organized under the U.S.-led 66-member Proliferation Security Initiative and the first to be based in the Gulf near Bahrain, across from Iran, the officials said.

Defense News

Thu, 26 Oct 2006 22:36:10 PDT - Link

Foggy Day In San Jose Town

Visibility is under 100 meters this morning.

Mon, 23 Oct 2006 08:08:49 PDT - Link

The Dangerous Hours

If Rove is going to pull his October surprise, It's going to be very soon. Even with gerrymandered districts, and The Diebold Advantage™, it's going to take something big to overcome the Foley mess, the news from Iraq, (Shiite Militia Seizes Control of Iraqi City) and the general mood of the nation. Something big, and not good for America.

Fri, 20 Oct 2006 08:44:07 PDT - Link

Can We Call It A Civil War Now?

Would it surprise you to learn that if the Johns Hopkins estimates of 400,000 to 800,000 deaths are correct — and many experts in the survey field seem to suggest they probably are — that the supposedly not-yet-civil-war in Iraq has already cost more lives, per capita, than our own Civil War (one in 40 of all Iraqis alive in 2003)? And that these losses are comparable to what some European nations suffered in World War II? You'd never know it from mainstream press coverage in the U.S.

Editor and Publisher

Juan Cole looks into the reports...

The study concludes that an average of 470 Iraqis per day have likely died as a result of political violence since March 19, 2003, though the number could be as low as 350 per day if the margin of error skewed to the low side. United Nations estimates based on figures from Iraqi morgues are more like 100 per day.

I follow the violence in Iraq carefully and daily, and I find the results plausible.

First of all, Iraqi Muslims don't believe in embalming or open casket funerals days later. They believe that the body should be buried by sunset the day of death, in a plain wooden box. So there is no reason to expect them to take the body to the morgue. Although there are benefits to registering with the government for a death certificate, there are also disadvantages. Many families who have had someone killed believe that the government or the Americans were involved, and will have wanted to avoid drawing further attention to themselves by filling out state forms and giving their address.

Juan Cole

It's all over, but the dying.

Wed, 18 Oct 2006 12:30:46 PDT - Link

Same Planet, Different Worlds.

President Bush has begun to paint this year's election as a choice between strength and weakness on national security — and the stark differences will show Americans the true nature of Democrats, Mr. Rove said.

"It is useful to remind people what [Democrats] said and what they do. I think they have given us here, especially in the last couple of weeks, a potent set of votes to talk about. You had 90 percent of House Democrats voting against the terrorist-surveillance program, nearly three-quarters of Senate Democrats and 80 percent of House Democrats voting against the terrorist-interrogation act. Something is fundamentally flawed."

Washington Times

Terrorist-surveillance program? — Oh you must mean that NSA wiretap program that was found to be unconstitutional:

The terrorist surveillance program, Taylor ruled, violates the First Amendment's right to freedom of expression and the Fourth Amendment right to privacy—that is, freedom from unreasonable searches. It also ignores requirements of a 1978 electronic wiretapping law known as the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and represents an overstepping of presidential powers, she wrote.

"There are no hereditary kings in America and no powers not created by the Constitution," the judge wrote, dismissing the Bush administration's argument that the warrantless program falls within the president's inherent wartime powers as commander in chief.

And that terrorist-interrogation act? It hasn't made its way into the courts — yet — but it doesn't look like that's going to be that popular with the religious voters come November:

During the exact time that the so-called "compromise" on torture was being discussed in Congress, religious leaders gathered in Palo Alto to make their concerns about torture heard loud and clear. Muslims, Jews, Presbyterians, Baptists, Methodists, Roman Catholics, Quakers, Buddhists and others shared prayers of repentance and intercession for our country at this critical time.

As their "Religious Leaders Statement Against Torture" was read, those present who had signed the statement stood in front of the sanctuary of the First Presbyterian Church. Over 150 religious leaders, local and national, and 17 religious organizations endorsed the statement, "Any policies that permit torture and inhumane treatment are shocking and morally intolerable. Nothing less than the soul of our nation is at stake on this issue."

Mercury News

Surely, this can't be Rove's October surprise —

"Don't vote for Democrats, they're weak on the war on terror because they oppose secret, illegal, unconstitutional wiretaps!"

"Don't vote for Democrats, they're weak on the war on terror because they oppose inhumane, illegal, unAmerican use of torture!"

Wed, 18 Oct 2006 07:59:35 PDT - Link

You Have Fewer Freedoms Today - or - The Terrorists Have Won

But the bill also reinforces the presidential claims, made in the Padilla case, that the commander in chief has the right to designate a U.S. citizen on American soil as an enemy combatant and subject him to military justice. Congress is poised to authorized this presidential overreaching. Under existing constitutional doctrine, this show of explicit congressional support would be a key factor that the Supreme Court would consider in assessing the limits of presidential authority.

LA Times

Read literally, this means that if the Pentagon says you're an unlawful enemy combatant — using whatever criteria they wish — then as far as Congress, and U.S. law, is concerned, you are one, whether or not you have had any connection to "hostilities" at all.

This definition is not limited to Al Qaeda and the Taliban. It's not limited to aliens — it covers U.S. citizens as well. It's not limited to persons captured or detained overseas. And it is not even limited to the armed conflict against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, authorized by Congress on September 18, 2001. Indeed, on the face of it, it's not even limited to a time of war or armed conflict; it could apply in peacetime.

Marty Lederman

So what's next from this mis-administration? A signing statment freeing Bush from the limits of the Twenty Second Amendment?

Keith Olbermann has Something to say about it [youtube]

Tue, 17 Oct 2006 21:23:31 PDT - Link

Do. The. Math.

The world needs 20 times more nuclear power plants to avert an environmental apocalypse that could kill billions of people due to global warming blamed on growing greenhouse gas emissions, a top nuclear advocate said Monday.

International Herald Tribune

Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand, also known as the Red Book, estimates the identified amount of conventional uranium resources which can be mined for less than USD 130/kg, just above the current spot price, to be about 4.7 million tonnes.

Based on the 2004 nuclear electricity generation rate this amount is sufficient for 85 years.

International Atomic Energy Agency

Okay, so we have 85 years of conventional Uranuim, based on 2004 usage rates. What would happen if we magically had 20x as many plants? The conventional uranium resources would last just 4.25 years.

The IAEA goes on to offer some hope:

However, total world uranium resources which could be available at market price are much higher. Based on geological evidence and knowledge of uranium in phosphates, the study estimates that more than 35 million tonnes are available for exploitation.

So 4.7 Millon tonnes equals 85 years at 2004 usage rates. 35 million tonnes would make it 633 years of uranium at 2004 rates. Phew.

One problem - when you build 20x as many nuclear power plants that 633 years shrinks to just 31.65 years. The life expectancy of a nuclear power plant is forty years. You do the math.

The last thing the children of 2037 need is 8,880 obsolete, radioactive, power plants that need to be decomissioned.

Tue, 17 Oct 2006 07:34:37 PDT - Link

Maples

Maple Leaves. 2006.05.19 Nikon D70s f/4.5 1/80S

No reason, just going though some images and I liked this one.

Mon, 16 Oct 2006 22:39:17 PDT - Link

Is There Anybody Out There?

Major SETI Institute Announcement

Details are few, but apparently SETI has detected a message from near the center of the galaxy, while the full translation it not complete, here is a leaked translation of the first paragraphs

KXYLUX-KIY, EGWEYQ.

ATTENTION: THE PRESIDENT/CEO

DEAR SIR,

CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS PROPOSAL

HAVING CONSULTED WITH MY COLLEAGUES AND BASED ON THE INFORMATION GATHERED FROM THE KXYLUX-KIY CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, I HAVE THE PRIVILEGE TO REQUEST FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE TO TRANSFER THE SUM OF 47,500,000.00 (FORTY SEVEN MILLION, FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND SYKRLS) INTO YOUR ACCOUNTS. THE ABOVE SUM RESULTED FROM AN OVER-INVOICED CONTRACT, EXECUTED COMMISSIONED AND PAID FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS (5) AGO BY AN ALIEN CONTRACTOR. THIS ACTION WAS HOWEVER INTENTIONAL AND SINCE THEN THE FUND HAS BEEN IN A SUSPENSE ACCOUNT AT THE CENTRAL BANK OF EGWEYQ.

Mon, 16 Oct 2006 08:41:27 PDT - Link

Friday Cat Blogging - Happiness Is A Warm Cat Butt Edition

Miko and Tory. Apparently a brother is an acceptable substitute for a warm monitor.

Fri, 13 Oct 2006 13:52:01 PDT - Link

Wall Street Looks to November

Most economists said the economy would perform best in the coming years if Democrats take control of at least one chamber of Congress. Only 12 of the 35 who answered the question said the economy would perform best under continued Republican control of the House and Senate. The best scenario, the economists said, would be Democratic control of the House only. The economists were almost evenly split over whether the stock market would perform better with a continued Republican lock on Congress or some measure of Democratic control.

Wall Street Journal

Looks like Wall Street has done the math, and they are betting that The Democrats will be picking up the House of Representatives.

Fri, 13 Oct 2006 07:33:20 PDT - Link

Spam as Poetry

From an actual spam email — only the formatting was changed.

Furthermore,
the fractured tuba player
earns frequent flier miles,
and an insurance agent
toward a line dancer
lazily finds lice
on the inexorably imaginative
movie theater.

Now and then,
a stoic bullfrog
conquers a most difficult
cheese wheel.
A load bearing plaintiff
sweeps the floor,
because a cargo bay recognizes a cashier.

Furthermore,
the class action suit
related to a microscope hesitates,
and the familiar senator
accidentally negotiates
a prenuptial agreement
with an avocado pit.

An usually fashionable crank case

Sun, 08 Oct 2006 08:32:46 PDT - Link

Friday Rat Blogging - or - "I'm the Ruler!"

To shield FEMA from cronyism, Congress established new job qualifications for the agency's director in last week's homeland security bill. The law says the president must nominate a candidate who has "a demonstrated ability in and knowledge of emergency management" and "not less than five years of executive leadership."

Bush signed the homeland-security bill on Wednesday morning. Then, hours later, he issued a signing statement saying he could ignore the new restrictions. Bush maintains that under his interpretation of the Constitution, the FEMA provision interfered with his power to make personnel decisions.

Boston.com

Remember, this law was passed by a Republican Congress and a Republican Senate and this Republican President signed it into law. Then — before the ink was dry — he declared the law null and void.

Bush doesn't want to govern — he wants to rule.

Fri, 06 Oct 2006 08:59:20 PDT - Link

Friday Cat Blogging

T-chan

Fri, 06 Oct 2006 08:03:35 PDT - Link

The No Idiot Left Behind Act of 2006.

Bush is on CNN this morning. I wonder if he ever thinks to apply his own words to his administration. While you read this passage from his speech, please imagine someone (like me) snuck in and secretly replaced the background banner with one that says "War On Terrorism"

Oh, I know people say we take tests too much. But how can you solve a problem until you measure. And how can you hold people to account when there is an achievement gap that isn't right for America unless you measure. Measuring is the gateway to success.

George W. Bush — October 5, 2006

Tell us Bush, How's that measuring going on the War In Terrorism?

The Iraq war has become the "cause célèbre" for Islamic militants, breeding resentment in Muslim nations and cultivating supporters worldwide, according to portions of a secret intelligence study the Bush administration released Tuesday.

The administration report also says that the militant Islamic movement is "spreading and adapting" to counterterrorism efforts and militants are "increasing both in number and geographic dispersion."

Thu, 05 Oct 2006 08:35:09 PDT - Link

France Gallery Open

My France Photo Gallery is now open for visitors. 113 of the 1714 images passed the 'somewhat artistic' criteria for display.

I reserve the right to add comments to the image pages over time.

Sun, 01 Oct 2006 14:37:46 PDT - Link

Oh, No. Not Again.

Pidgeons. Why Did It Have To Be... Pidgeons.

Sat, 30 Sep 2006 11:05:59 PDT - Link

Who'da Thunk? - or - Turning Back The Clock - or - Building A Bridge To The 11th Century.

The Republicans in congress are busy repealing Habeas Corpus.

You know then I heard about "The New American Century" I didn't think it was going to be the 1200s.

Sat, 30 Sep 2006 10:55:04 PDT - Link

Friday Cat Bloging

Freindly Street Cat in Dinan France — Nikon D70s 2006.09.16

Fri, 29 Sep 2006 08:35:11 PDT - Link

Sprott Shotts

Sprott Asset Managemnet Has a compelling report eviscerating the predictions of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. You know CERA, you've seen thier representitives on the news, always claiming that oil will drop back to $38 real soon now™.

Thu, 28 Sep 2006 08:44:12 PDT - Link

Pillars

Mont St. Michel — Nikon D70s 2006.09.15

Still working on the photo gallery, I had to re-do a number of the shots because I'd been editing on an 8 year old CRT monitor, and when I looked at the images on my laptop, they looked overcooked. My desktop LCD monitor came in Monday, (Sorry, Miko, no more sleeping on the monitor) so no more overcooked image corrections.

When I looked through the images on my old monitor I was a bit disappointed at the image quality that I got from the new camera. On the new monitor the images look marvelous — even the ones taken on cloudy days.

Wed, 27 Sep 2006 08:31:27 PDT - Link

Why Gas is Really Cheaper - or - Republican Sheep

The Tweak...
So here is what Goldman Sachs did to the GSCI,

Prior to Goldman's revision of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in July, unleaded gas accounted for 8.45% (dollar weighting) of the GSCI. Now unleaded gas is only 2.30%.

So What’s Wrong With This?
As Bill King points out,

"Goldman's changes probably induced arbs, commercial hedgers, and other traders to sell September and October unleaded gasoline future contracts to avoid possible (settlement, delivery, etc.) problems.
September futures expired in August; October contracts expire September 29. So unleaded gasoline prices collapsed in August and September."

I would like to "restate" what Mr. King said: What this means folks, is that hedge funds and institutional money that "TRACKS THE INDEX" were FORCED TO SELL 75% of their gasoline futures to conform with the reconstituted GSCI. And if anyone hasn’t noticed the timing of the price of the gasoline price collapse... just in time for November’s Mid Term Elections!

So don’t be fooled into believing that potential energy shortages have "magically been solved." In all likelihood - much of the recent decline in the price of gasoline we have all "welcomed" has been the result of paper tricks being played on what amounts to a wealthy flock of sheep.

Financial Sense

Tue, 26 Sep 2006 07:59:50 PDT - Link

As a Kid I Always Wanted To See Another Planet...

"If further global warming reaches 2 or 3 degrees Celsius, we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know. The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about 3 million years ago, when sea level was estimated to have been about 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today," Hansen said.

MyWay

I just didn't think that other planet would be Earth.

Mon, 25 Sep 2006 23:32:48 PDT - Link

Overcome By Splendor

I came across these three, deep in sleep, in a splendid hall in Versailles. 2006.09.18

Mon, 25 Sep 2006 08:33:32 PDT - Link

Death by Salad

"The information gathered by the Saudis indicates that the head of al Qaeda fell victim, while he was in Pakistan on August 23, 2006, to a very serious case of typhoid that led to a partial paralysis of his internal organs." Raw Story

It wasn't a "water-borne illness'. It was the spinach.

Sun, 24 Sep 2006 09:28:04 PDT - Link

Blowback 2.0

In a related story, it appears that yanking our troops out of Afghanistan (where the whole world was ready to hold the Taliban's arms while we beat the Bin Laden out of them) and using them to destroy the civic infrastructure of Iraq seems to be making us less safe from terrorism.

WASHINGTON A stark assessment of terrorism trends by U.S. intelligence agencies has found that the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq has helped spawn a new generation of Islamic radicalism and that the overall terrorist threat has grown since the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001.

International Herald Tribune reprint of NY Times story.

Sun, 24 Sep 2006 09:28:04 PDT - Link

Filtering

So far, I've filtered down the 1714 photos to 150 candidates for a France photo gallery. The next pass will be with a more critical eye — less travelogue, more art.

As for the dog, he was tied up at the edge of a outdoor cafe in Dinan. The French love their dogs, and take them everywhere. There were dogs on the TGV train. At one point the little cocker poked his nose into the Isle and barked twice. The response from the French passengers was big Oh look. How cute! smiles. He was adorable. The difference is that these are dogs that can be taken anywhere. There are dogs in cafes and restaurants, and they are well behaved, and their owners are good about cleaning up after them. Some of the older guidebooks warned about the dog doo on the sidewalks, but It looks like the public clean-up campaign is working. I also saw two larger dogs being walked with muzzles. When was the last time you saw a muzzle in the USA? When was the last time you saw a dog that could have used a muzzle?

Sun, 24 Sep 2006 08:00:57 PDT - Link

That's not an October Surprise, This is an October Surprise!

Daniel wrote to submit that the October surprise might be an attack on Iran. I really, really, really hope he is wrong. He might not be:

The Pentagon's top brass has moved into second-stage contingency planning for a potential military strike on Iran, one senior intelligence official familiar with the plans tells RAW STORY.

The official, who is close to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest ranking officials of each branch of the US military, says the Chiefs have started what is called "branches and sequels" contingency planning.

"The JCS has accepted the inevitable," the intelligence official said, "and is engaged in serious contingency planning to deal with the worst case scenarios that the intelligence community has been painting."

The senior intelligence official who spoke to RAW STORY, along with several military intelligence sources, confirmed that the nuclear option remains on the table. In addition, the senior official added that the Joint Chiefs have "come around on to the administration's thinking."

RAW STORY

"Come around on to the administration's thinking"?!?!?! The administration doesn't have thinking — it has faith, and faith is not-thinking.

How will bombing Iran help win the next election for the Republicans? I don't get it. The timing would have to be perfect. It'd have to be very close to the election, so that the electorate would still be blinded by the fog of war. It'd have to be before the price of oil would triple because of a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz. Maybe I don't get it because I can no more imagine such an attack than I could imagine attacking Iraq for WMDs when there was no evidence for them.

I've got a very bad feeling about this.

P.S. Remember: The JCS never got around to planning for what happend after shock and awe in Iraq.

Fri, 22 Sep 2006 12:49:55 PDT - Link

Friday Cat Blogging

Unidentified Cat in Dinan, France. 2006.09.15

Fri, 22 Sep 2006 06:10:46 PDT - Link

Friday Rat Blogging

According to two conservative websites, White House political strategist Karl Rove has been promising GOP insiders that there will be an "October surprise" before the midterm elections.

"In the past week, Karl Rove has been promising Republican insiders an 'October surprise' to help win the November congressional elections," reports Ronald Kessler for Newsmax.

Raw Story

The Republicans are speaking with a unified message becease they are only using one brain, and it's between Karl Rove's ears.

Fri, 22 Sep 2006 06:10:46 PDT - Link

Dumb

Britain's leading scientists have challenged the US oil company ExxonMobil to stop funding groups that attempt to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change.

Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial Guardian UK

Exxon's war on science was fought from the very top. Former CEO Lee Raymond was instrumental in directing the company to underwrite bad science.

Now that Lee is retired from Exxon (with his $400,000,000.00 bonus), he's found a new hobby, researching peak oil for the Bush Administration:

The Wall Street Journal is reporting (subscription required) that Lee Raymond, the retired head of Exxon Mobil, will head up a National Petroleum Council (NPC) effort to investigate peak oil claims.

Blue Climate

Fox, meet hen-house.

Facts, meet obfuscation.

Truth, meet oblivion.

Future, meet darkness.

Thu, 21 Sep 2006 12:35:02 PDT - Link

Smart

Smart ForTwo - Seen on street in Nice France.

We saw a lot of these cute two-seaters in the cities of France, and some were even being used as business vehicles.

Thu, 21 Sep 2006 08:17:55 PDT - Link

Priorities

8.99:1 — Ratio of US Halloween Budget vs Bush budget for renewable enegry research.

$5,000,000,000 : Amount Americans are expected to spend in 2006 on Halloween candy, decorations, and costumes. Washington Times

$556,000,000 : Funding in Bush's 2007 budget for Plug-in electric vehicles, Geothermal, Hydro power, Wind, Hydrogen, and Biomass research. Boston Globe

Thu, 21 Sep 2006 07:09:17 PDT - Link

Pretty as an Airport

Charles de Gaulle International Airport - Paris, France - 2006.09.06 Nikon N70s

Wed, 20 Sep 2006 05:20:44 PDT - Link

Random Thoughts on France

Driving in France is easy. Navigating in France is really, really hard.

In the USA, road signs tell you about the name or number of the road. In France, the road signs point to places names.

The places name the signs point to may be anywhere from 50 meters to 50 KM away.

The roads in France are better maintained, and less crowded.

Drivers in France are more courteous, and drive like professionals.

Gasoil (Diesel) was about € 1.20 / liter. (About USD $5.00/Gal)

We visited Dinan, a medieval walled town in North East Brittany. As we walked through the 13th century streets, I got the distinct feeling that the cars were tourists like us. Dinan was around long before the automobile, and will be around long after the cars are gone.

My Sidekick got 4 bars of coverage and data services almost everywhere.

Data roaming is REALLY expensive. (Over $50.00 per day on some days. Ouch.)

French food, even in inexpensive cafes and brasseries, is outstanding.

French waiters are not rude, they are just really busy. Please don't waste their time.

One waiter chased out the door to thank us for leaving a nice tip.

Look for 'natural tripods'. I took a lot of night-time long exposure photos using railings, columns and posts.

We did not meet one rude person in all of France. I'm a little disappointed. ^_^;

The guy in the seat behind me on the flight home was terribly rude, (My seat back, Sir — is not a trebuchet!) but he waited until we were over England.

The light in Paris near sunset had me itching for a #10 sable, and I don't even paint.

Little known fact: The Notre Dame Archaeological Crypt smells like a cat box.

The Champs-Elysee was a little disappointing. The Boulevard Saint-Germain had better shopping. (Or so Nabiki tells me.)

I did not see a single pickup truck in two weeks France. Tradesmen used panel vans and small trailers.

Back in the USA I passed 5 pickup trucks in the 100 yards between where I parked and the exit of the parking lot.

I saw one(!) Prius in France. The Prius is a big car compared to the average car in the fleet.

Scooters and micro cars (two passenger vehicles) were everywhere in Paris.

There was lots of Motorcycle racing on European Sport TV, but you see more 'super-bikes' on the roads in the USA.

CNN showed some special about the New Orleans Police (after Katrina) over and over again. It made me feel like I came from a third world country.

Tue, 19 Sep 2006 20:47:51 PDT - Link

Well, We're back.

View of the beach in Nice, France. [Google maps]

One of 1714 Pictures I took in the last two weeks in France.

I'll be putting together a gallery of the best shots over the next few weeks, in the meantime, I've got to put some notes together on the wonderful — and occasionally baffling — experience.

Finally, some new content for the site. Sorry, I didn't do any writing on the trip, but Nabiki was with us at every stop, she may have something to say about the trip...)

Mon, 18 Sep 2006 17:28:18 PDT - Link

More Late Fees

I loaned some Rurioni Kenshin DVDs to David and told him of my "late fees" policy. He returned the DVDs in plenty of time, but was inspired to produce an original artwork anyway. Jeez, he's good. I'm not worthy.

Mon, 04 Sep 2006 21:56:12 PDT - Link

Facts? We Don't Need No steenkin' Facts!

"Nuclear power is safe and nuclear power is clean and nuclear power is renewable," the president said.

CNN

Renewable? I don't think so, and neither does the US Army Corps of Engineers:

Estimated domestic uranium deposits are 225 million pounds at $30/lb and about 760 million pounds at $50/lb. U.S. consumption is about 54 million pounds per year with large amounts currently imported. Worldwide resources are estimated at 5,000 million pounds at $30/lb and 6,500 million pounds at $50/lb. About 31 percent of the low cost reserves are located in Canada. Annual worldwide requirements range from 121 to 175 million pounds per year (WEC 2001). Assuming an annual usage of about 150 million pounds per year, this equates to about a 33 to 43 year supply at current consumption rates. Here again, since uranium is a non-renewable natural resource, it supply will eventually reach a peak and trend downward. However, there is no shortage of world capacity to supply uranium at this time. Development of new plants is growing very slowly, with much nuclear power generating capacity projected to shutdown over the mid term. — [Emphasis Added]

Mon, 04 Sep 2006 18:24:20 PDT - Link

Bloomberg Discovers Peak Oil

Proponents of this controversial idea say global oil production is now at or near its zenith. Once the flow crests and starts to decline — and some geologists say it already has — oil will no longer be able to slake the world's growing thirst for energy. The result will be the oil shock to end all oil shocks. The price of a barrel of crude will spiral to $200 — and keep rising. To the peaksters, today's energy crunch is nothing next to the pain that will follow.

Bloomgerg

Not bad for a mainstream article, but I get the feeling that it's the first in a series, breaking the news slowly, as it were.

The good thing about these mainstream articals is that they help to spread the news far beyond their own pages or website. This article was picked up by Fark.com which has a very different audience than Bloomberg. I was particularly impressed by one of the comments on the forum:

It is always the same in the "Peak Oil" threads.
Let me just say there a some things to consider:

1. It doesn't matter how much petroleum exists in the Earth's crust, what matters is how much of it is physically recoverable.

2. All the money in the world cannot change the laws of physics.

3. Technology is not energy. Technology does not make energey, energy makes technology.

4. The belief that technology will solve energy scarcity is religion, not rationality.

5. Abiotic oil theory is nonsense.

6. The current global industrial organizational/transportation paradigm is not sustainable in the coming petroleum-scarcity environment.

7. "Alternative energy sources" cannot sustain the current paradigm.

Industrial civilization need not collapse in the absence of cheap and plentiful petroleum, but rearranging the physical layout of our industrial societies will be necessary. Rethinking priorities and expectations will be necessary. Altering your lifestyle will be necessary.

2006-09-01 10:28:26 AM canyoneer

'Canyoneer' has clearly spent more time on the issue than the author of the Bloomberg piece.

Fri, 01 Sep 2006 07:54:40 PDT - Link

Life Goes On

Bridge in Portland, Oregon — June 16, 2001

Just going through some old photos, and this one called out for a little Photoshop manipulation.

It feels good to do mindless stuff — messing with photos, sorting DVDs, going though a stack of junk mail, cleaning my office. Somehow, sorting things helps. I keep finding photos and artifacts that have good memories attatched.

Thu, 31 Aug 2006 20:42:27 PDT - Link

Jean Palmer 1924-2006

My mother passed away this morning. I took this picture of her over Christmas '05. She was a particularly great human being — funny, informed, and comfortable.

Bye mom. I love you.

Wed, 30 Aug 2006 21:52:39 PDT - Link

Reality Soaks In

The American auto industry conceded today that all of the planning, model design, marketing, and investing it has done over the past two decades will have to be junked, because gasoline is going to remain at $3 or $4 a gallon for the foreseeable future.

Huffington Post (With links to NY Times)

About time, Detroit. I'm getting better than 52 MPG this week in my Prius. That's the bar Not 30. Not 40. More. Than. Fifty. That's the goal.

I'll bet the engineers of Detroit are sick of 'freshening' the '80s technology SUVs with more chrome and gadgets. They're ready to step up. They're ready to build the future generation of electic cars. We're going to need them.

Tue, 29 Aug 2006 21:28:32 PDT - Link

TD5 Blogging

Crown Weather collects the interesting maps and forcasts for the weather for tropcal weather.

Oil is up about USD $0.93 to 73.30, and Natural gas is up USD $0.39 to 7.47 because of tropical depression 5. The models show it entering the southern Gulf Of Mexico, which is a little warmer than usual.

Hold on to your hats, and if you're the praying type, make sure to ask for some wind shear.

Update: Weather Underground has an even better tropical storm page.

Fri, 25 Aug 2006 08:46:53 PDT - Link

Saturday Natural Gas Blogging

APSO 2006 — Robert Hirsch

This image is from a presentation at the Association of the Study of Peak Oil conference in Pisa. It's striking when taken in a historical context.

Back in 2002, the US department of energy was forecasting a rapidly growing supply of natural gas, so of course industry responded by building gas fired power plants. Just two years later (about the time it takes to build such a plant) the forecast didn't look so good. Two years on and the forecast is downright gloomy. It'll be interesting to see where the 2007 forecast falls.

Remember this chart the next time someone tells you not to worry about Peak Oil because of EIA (or some other governmental agency) forecasts. Those forecasts can change, and can change fast.

P.S. Robert Hirsch should be a familiar name to readers of my blog, he's the author of: Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management AKA the Hirsch report.

- Link

Saturday Cat Blogging

Every used bookstore needs a cat.

Sat, 12 Aug 2006 08:40:01 PDT - Link

The Constitution in Crisis

While the mainstram media had plenty of time to talk about Floyd Landis this weekend, the "Final Investigative Report of the House Judiciary Committee Democratic Staff" got very little ink or airtime. Here's a excerpt:

The Constitution in Crisis; The Downing Street Minutes and Deception,Manipulation, Torture, Retribution, and Coverups in the Iraq War, and Illegal Domestic Surveillance

In brief, we have found that there is substantial evidence the President, the Vice-President and other high ranking members of the Bush Administration misled Congress and the American people regarding the decision to go to war in Iraq; misstated and manipulated intelligence information regarding the justification for such war; countenanced torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment in Iraq; permitted inappropriate retaliation against critics of their Administration; and approved domestic surveillance that is both illegal and unconstitutional. As further detailed in the Report, there is evidence that these actions violate a number of federal laws, including:

• Making False Statements to Congress, for example, saying you have learned Iraq is attempting to buy uranium from Niger, when you have been warned by the CIA that this is not the case.

•The War Powers Resolution and Misuse of Government Funds, for example, redeploying troops and initiating bombing raids before receiving congressional authorization.

•Federal laws and international treaties prohibiting torture and cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment, for example, ordering detainees to be ghosted and removed, and tolerating and laying the legal ground work for their torture and mistreatment.

• Federal laws concerning retaliating against witnesses and other individuals, for example, demoting Bunnatine Greenhouse, the chief contracting officer at the Army Corps of Engineers, because she exposed contracting abuses involving Halliburton.

• Federal requirements concerning leaking and other misuse of intelligence, for example, failing to enforce the executive order requiring disciplining those who leak classified information, whether intentional or not.

• Federal regulations and ethical requirements governing conflicts of interest, for example, then Attorney General John Aschcroft's being personally briefed on FBI interviews concerning possible misconduct by Karl Rove even though Mr. Rove had previously received nearly $750,000 in fees for political work on Mr. Ashcroft's campaigns.

• Violating FISA and the Fourth Amendment, for example intercepting thousands of communications "to or from any person within the United States," without obtaining a warrant.

• The Stored Communications Act of 1986 and the Communications Act of 1934, for example, obtaining millions of U.S. customer telephone records without obtaining a subpoena or warrant, without customer consent, and outside of any applicable "emergency exceptions."

• The National Security Act, for example, failing to keep all Members of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees :"fully and currently informed" of intelligence activities, such as the warrantless surveillance programs.

Mon, 07 Aug 2006 08:44:22 PDT - Link

Oil Production vs. Price

This chart from Oil CEO has some striking features.

First, Production (Purple lines, revised and 13 month smoothed) has seen two two-year production slumps ('88-'89, '01-02). They each look like "The Peak" had been reached, don't they.

Second, Each of those two slumps were preceded by a drop in price, a clear demonstration of demand and supply.

Third, production is slumping again, but this time the slump is in the face of clear upward momentum in price. I'm no economist, but the last two years looks like price trying to reduce demand to the available supply.

Thu, 03 Aug 2006 09:12:53 PDT - Link

Cantarell in Steep Decline

Mexican crude oil output at Cantarell, the world's second-largest field, fell faster than expected in June to a four-year low, signaling the government will miss production targets.

The field, which accounts for about half of Mexico's crude production, yielded 1.74 million barrels a day in June, 13 percent less than a year ago and the least since November 2001, according to data on the Energy Ministry's web site. Cantarell is the world's No. 2 field by output and Mexico's biggest.

Production is falling faster than the government anticipated, worsening the outlook for Mexican crude exports and public finances. Petroleos Mexicanos, the state oil monopoly, forecast Cantarell output would decline 6 percent this year to average 1.9 million barrels per day.

Bloomberg

That's it. The worlds #2 feild has peaked, and it was pushed over the peak by the the most modern, high tech extraction techniques. That's it. There are no other tricks to try. Cantarell will never again produce more oil than it did last year.

Thu, 03 Aug 2006 08:41:51 PDT - Link

Three - Point - Five - Trillion - Dollars

The set the government doesn't talk about is the audited financial statement produced by the government's accountants following standard accounting rules. It reports a more ominous financial picture: a $760 billion deficit for 2005. If Social Security and Medicare were included — as the board that sets accounting rules is considering — the federal deficit would have been $3.5 trillion.

USA Today

Thu, 03 Aug 2006 08:28:31 PDT - Link

A Day at the Races

Last year we saw a few pit stops up close, but only the top 3" of the airboxes whizing by on the main track.

This year we got seats in the hairpin, and the view is spectacular!

Sun, 30 Jul 2006 10:00:23 PDT - Link

What part of NO! don't you understand?

WASHINGTON - U.S. citizens suspected of terror ties might be detained indefinitely and barred from access to civilian courts under legislation proposed by the Bush administration, say legal experts reviewing an early version of the bill. A 32-page draft measure is intended to authorize the Pentagon's tribunal system, established shortly after the 2001 terrorist attacks to detain and prosecute detainees captured in the war on terror. The tribunal system was thrown out last month by the Supreme Court.

Yahoo News

Sat, 29 Jul 2006 10:26:22 PDT - Link

The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream

Now available for viewing on Google Video

Thu, 27 Jul 2006 22:20:31 PDT - Link

A Portrait Of A Home As An ATM, - or - The Millenium Debt

Wander on over to Caculated Risk to view the carnage. The Bush economy doesn't look so hot when you take Mortgage Equity Withdrawals into account.

Thu, 27 Jul 2006 19:56:52 PDT - Link

Short Term Thinking - or - Why Does Bush Hate Your Children?

This morning brings the news that the Bush administration has quietly changed the mission statement of NASA — removing the key phrase "to understand and protect our home planet".

Since the NY Times is behind a paywall, I searched Google News and eventually followed the breadcrumbs to this June 9th, 2006 Boston Globe article:

NASA shelves climate satellites

The changes come as NASA prioritizes its budget to pay for completion of the International Space Station and the return of astronauts to the moon by 2020 — a goal set by President Bush that promises a more distant and arguably less practical scientific payoff. Ultimately, scientists say, the delays and cancellations could make hurricane predictions less accurate, create gaps in long-term monitoring of weather, and result in less clarity about the earth's hydrological systems, which play an integral part in climate change. Boston.com

I really can't understand an administration who calls for more research into climate change — then cuts budgets and changes the mission of the one governmental agency that is best equipped to do that research.

Your kids, and their kids, and so on, are going to need this planet, you know.

Sat, 22 Jul 2006 10:10:53 PDT - Link

Best. Lecture. Ever.

In the summer of 1986 the news reports indicated that the world population had reached the number of five billion people growing at the rate of 1.7% per year. Well your reaction to 1.7% might be to say that that's so small nothing bad could ever happen at 1.7% per year. So you calculate the doubling time you find its only 41 years, now that was back in 1986, more recently in 1999 we read that the world population had grown from five billion to six billion . The good news is that the growth rate had dropped from 1.7% to 1.3% per cent per year. The bad news is that in spite of the drop in the growth rate, the world population today is increasing by about 75 million additional people every year.

Now, if this current modest 1.3% per year could continue, the world population would grow to a density of one person per square meter on the dry land surface of the earth in just seven hundred and eighty years and then the mass of people would equal the mass of the earth in just twenty four hundred years. [ephasis added]

Dr. Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic, Population and Energy Global Public Media

Dr. Bartlett has given this fasinating presentation to over 1000 audiences. Available on Global Public Media in Real Video, .mp3 and .ram audio, and a text transcript.

Viewing this presentation can change the way you look at the world.

Mon, 17 Jul 2006 08:27:01 PDT - Link

Saturday Cat Blogging

Miko, on red office chair. (Another in the series of Palmer cats on red office chairs)

Sat, 15 Jul 2006 10:49:19 PDT - Link

Clinton At Aspen Ideas

"To the best of my knowledge I never had a security briefing which said what some of these very serious but conservative petroleum geologists say, which is that they think that either now or before the decade is out that we'll reach peak oil production globally ... This needs much more serious debate. It's almost not discussed at all in the mainstream media."

Energy Bulletin

A link to the audio [Realplayer] is provided. I've heard that conference audio will be posted to the Aspen Institute site

Thu, 13 Jul 2006 21:40:03 PDT - Link

Happy Double Daniel Yergin Day!

Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) suggested in November of '04 that in a year Oil would be selling for $USD 38/bl. He missed that prediction, and today, some 8 months after his target date, Oil has reached $USD 76.40 twice his predicted price.

Yergin is the go-to guy for the main stream media, the guy they call to be on the air to claim that Peak oil is decades away.

Here's what westexas, an independent geologist had to say about today's milestone:

In my opinion, Mr. Yergin serves as an excellent symbol of the major oil company/major oil exporter/energy analyst group. And since oil prices are now trading at close to $76 per barrel—twice Mr. Yergin's prediction—I hereby designate July 13, 2006 as "Daniel Yergin Day," in honor of Mr. Yergin's continued efforts to, in effect, persuade Americans to continue driving large debt financed vehicles, on large commutes to and from large mortgages.

One of the little ironies about the Peak Oil debate is that it is those who are trying their best to warn Americans about the dangers posed by Peak Oil—-Matt Simmons; Colin Campbell; Kenneth Deffeyes; Boone Pickens, Jim Kunstler etc.—who are most often blamed for rising oil prices. I think that it is just the opposite. It seems logical to me that those who are asserting that we have plentiful supplies of oil are doing far more to encourage consumption—and thus higher oil prices—than those who are asserting that we have problems with oil supplies.

If you believe Matt Simmons, et al, about the future direction of energy prices, you will drastically reduce your overall consumption, especially your energy consumption, by living in a small energy efficient home, close to where you work—which would ideally allow you to walk or take mass transit to work, or at least result in a short commute.

In my opinion, it is those who are telling us that Peak Oil is decades away—such as ExxonMobil, Opec and Yergin—who are most responsible for, in effect, encouraging Americans to continue driving $50,000 SUV's on 50 mile roundtrips to and from $500,000 mortgages in the suburbs.

westexas — in The Oil Drum comments

Thu, 13 Jul 2006 09:03:30 PDT - Link

Look Back In Anger

Narration: What would happen if the world started running out of oil?

Jeremy Leggett: It’s going to be very difficult to get gasoline for transport. Food is not going to be getting through in enough quantities to the shops, Narration: Conventional wisdom says that’s at least 30 years away.

So why does a growing group of petroleum experts believe it’s coming within three?

Eric Streitberg: Ah. I think it’s happening now frankly.

Peter Newman: It gives me nightmares when I think about what we’re headed for.

Narration: Are they just scaremongerers or have the rest of us been asleep at the wheel. Are we about to hit the real oil crisis?

Jeremy Leggett: Really when the crisis dawns I think people are going to be looking back in anger. How have we allowed ourselves to get into this mess?

From the Catalyst documentary (ABC Australia) Real Oil Crisis [12:49 Windows Media or Real]

Oil is at $USD 74.45 just now.

Wed, 12 Jul 2006 07:57:58 PDT - Link

The Thermodynamics Of An Air Car

The results indicate that both sides are correct. At 20°C a 300 Liter tank filled with air at 300 bar carries 51 MJ of energy. Under ideal reversible isothermalconditions, this energy could be entirely converted to mechanical work. However, even under isentropic conditions (no heat is exchanged with the environment or generated by internal friction) not more than 25 MJ become useful. By multi-stage expansion with inter-stage heating the expansion process is brought closer to the isothermal ideal.

Thermodynamic Analysis of Compressed Air Vehicle Propulsion

Unfortunately the article doesn't convert megajoules to miles.

A quick Google search finds that a gallon of gasoline contains about 132 megajoules of energy. Ouch. 300 liters of compressed air contains less energy than a half a gallon of gas. However, since most of the energy of gasoline is lost before it gets to the wheels, we can perhaps derate gasoline to around 18 MJ/G. That looks a little better, 300 liters is closer to 2.8 gallons. My Prius gets over 50 MPG (53.4 this tank) so that's 140 miles between fill-ups. That's one week's commute for me.

Unfortunately, we should derate that 52 MJ as well. We won't be losing power to heat the radiator — 62% of the loss in an internal combustion engine — but there will be other losses. Just guessing, let's call it 50%. That's about 70 miles on a 'fill-up', for a 4-passenger car in the Prius class. An ultra-light commuter car might be able to double that.

It looks like compressed air is still in the running. I wonder if a hybrid system would help as well, using a multi-stage Tesla turbine connected to a generator to keep a small battery system topped up.

Tue, 11 Jul 2006 21:02:46 PDT - Link

We Have 60 Years Of Uranium Left - Do We Really Want To Build More Nuclear Power Plants?

A new generation of nuclear reactors will increase demand for uranium ore to produce reactor fuel. In 2005 the world nuclear fleet consumed about 68,000 tonnes of natural uranium, mostly frommined sources. At the end of 2005 the world known recoverable uranium resources amounted to about 3.6 million tonnes (t). These resources show a wide variation in ore grade and accessibility. Understanding this variation is essential for assessing nuclear energy security.

Uranium ore is not an energy resource unless the ore grade is high enough. Below grade 0.02% (U₃O₈ Uranium Oxide) more energy is required to produce and exploit the uranium fuel than can be generated from it. Falling ore grade leads to rapidly rising CO2 emissions from the nuclear energy cycle. Assuming world nuclear generating capacity remains at 2005 levels, after about 2016 the mean grade of uranium ore will fall significantly from today’s levels, and even more so after 2034. After about 60 years the world nuclear power system will fall off the 'Energy Cliff' - meaning that the nuclear system will consume as much energy as can be generated from the uranium fuel. Whether large and rich new uranium ore deposits will be found or not is unknown.

Oxford Research Group Factsheet 4 Energy Security and Uranium Reserves

The factsheet is extracted from the full technical paper: Energy from Uranium from the Oxford Research Group

The study appears to refer to the recent call for (ten) more nuclear power plants in the UK. The 60-year timetable appears to assume 2005 rates of use, (for 441 working reactors) and does not make allowance for increased demand for uranium that would result if other nations decided to build more plants at the same time.

The main lesson here is that nuclear power is also a limited resource*, and that in 100 years we will not have enough energy-positive ore to use it for power generation.

* The full technical report has this to say about breeder reactors:

Fifty years of intensive research in seven countries (USA, UK, France, Germany, former USSR now Russia, Japan and India), with investments of many of tens of billions of dollars so far have failed to demonstrate that the breeder cycle is technically feasible (see Appendix A). Even if the breeder cycle starts working flawlessly next year, the share of breeder power could become significant only at the end of this century.

The MIT 20031 study The Future of Nuclear Power [Q280], does not expect breeders (in effect the breeder cycle) to come into operation during the next three decades. The MIT study concluded that for the next three decades, and probably beyond, nuclear energy generation has to rely on thermal-neutron reactors, mainly LWRs, in the once-through mode. In the once-through mode no uranium and plutonium is recycled, consequently spent fuel is not reprocessed. The authors of MIT considered the proliferation and safety risks of reprocessing and the use of MOX fuel unjustified. But there are also economic reasons not to recycle.

Tue, 11 Jul 2006 12:30:17 PDT - Link

The Peak Down Under

From ABC Australia, a superb Four Corners documentary on Peak Oil.

Mon, 10 Jul 2006 21:43:40 PDT - Link

Business As Usual - or - How Long Can You Tread Water?

The business-as-usual scenario yields an increase of about five degrees Fahrenheit of global warming during this century, while the alternative scenario yields an increase of less than two degrees Fahrenheit during the same period.

...

How much will sea level rise with five degrees of global warming? Here too, our best information comes from the Earth's history. The last time that the Earth was five degrees warmer was three million years ago, when sea level was about eighty feet higher. [Emp. added — J.]

Eighty feet! In that case, the United States would lose most East Coast cities: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, and Miami; indeed, practically the entire state of Florida would be under water. Fifty million people in the US live below that sea level. Other places would fare worse. China would have 250 million displaced persons. Bangladesh would produce 120 million refugees, practically the entire nation. India would lose the land of 150 million people.

The Threat to the Planet — Jim Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

I'd linked to a pdf of this earlier, the HTML version is far easier to read on a screen.

Mon, 10 Jul 2006 08:35:50 PDT - Link

Richard Dawkins takes on Faith

In this two-part Channel 4 series, Professor Richard Dawkins challenges what he describes as 'a process of non-thinking called faith'.

The Root Of All Evil Google Video

Thu, 06 Jul 2006 22:56:54 PDT - Link

Richard Heinberg takes on Greg Palast

Greg Palast's new book Armed Madhouse took a few swipes at the theory behind peak oil, and thse who examine the data. Richard Heinberg, author of Powerdown, replied with an open letter

On page 108 you pretend to summarize Hubbert’s 1956 world forecast for global oil production as follows:

Sometime during 2006, we will have used up every last drop of crude oil on the planet. We’re not talking "decline" in oil from a production "peak," we’re talking "culmination," completely gone, kaput, dead out of crude—and not enough natural gas left to roast a weenie.

But "Decline" and "peak" are precisely what Hubbert was forecasting—and not in 2006, but around the year 2000, as shown in the graph you reproduce on page 111. How could you possibly get the essential terms of the debate so plainly wrong? Frankly, I’m amazed. Maybe you got hung up on the word culmination (which, among other things, means "the highest point achieved by a celestial object in the night sky before it begins its descent"—a good metaphorical usage of the term in this instance). But even so, how could you have completely missed the context in which Hubbert used that word—a discussion that was entirely about "decline" and "peak"?

Thu, 06 Jul 2006 08:37:42 PDT - Link

Passivhaus Institut

The Passivhaus Institut has some great information on building high-efficiency homes. (German & English)

I want my next house to be as efficient as my Prius. Most of the houses around here fall into one of two categories. The new houses are built like SUVs — huge with loads of fancy accessories but efficiency is the bare minimum by law. The older houses are like older cars. Many have great curb appeal, but 'under the hood' they're obsolete.

Sat, 01 Jul 2006 08:57:55 PDT - Link

We've Driven To Edge Of The Cliff, And There's Still Half A Tank Left!

Do you believe, as some predict, that we are going to run out of oil within fifty years?

It's a sophisticated debate between the geologists on one side and the economists on the other. But the debate over oil reserves misses the point. We have more than enough oil, not to mention coal, to completely destroy the habitability of the planet. The real constraint on oil and coal is not supply, but global warming. There's a saying: "The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones. And the Age of Fossil Fuels won't end because we run out of fossil fuels."

Rolling Stone interview with Al Gore

Fri, 30 Jun 2006 08:30:54 PDT - Link

Born of American Ingenuity, Died of American Management

Ford Motor Co. Chairman and CEO Bill Ford Jr. is backing away from his much-publicized commitment to produce 250,000 hybrid vehicles a year by the end of the decade, saying the company intends to pursue a broader environmental strategy that focuses more on other alternative-fuel vehicles.

Detroit News

Ford doesn't realize that we've already hit the iceberg* [.pdf] and there will be no room in the lifeboats for SUVs.

*These slides are from a presentation By Oil Industry Investment Banker Matt Simmons to Department of Defense, June 20, 2006

Thu, 29 Jun 2006 20:09:02 PDT - Link

No Surface Noise Now - Not Much To Say

Tonight's video - It's a mistake by Men at Work [youtube]

I really must work up an acoustic version of that song.

Wed, 28 Jun 2006 22:58:27 PDT - Link

JOSEPHPALMER.COM Moving?

Jim Hansen of NASA placed these side my side images of Florida at the top of his The Threat To The Planet Report [pdf]

It's no big deal for me to move my web service to higher ground — Say Colorado, but a quick look at Google Maps shows threre's a lot of other things (like, say Miami) that will be a lot harder to move.

Please ask every Republican you meet if flag burining is really more important than global warming. <